Forecasting early climax on taking into account of reproductive and biological age indicators


  • O.O. Efimenko State institution institute of pediatrics obstetrics and gynecology named after academic O.M. Lukyanova National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • I.M. Retunska State institution institute of pediatrics obstetrics and gynecology named after academic O.M. Lukyanova National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • T.O. Marturosova State institution institute of pediatrics obstetrics and gynecology named after academic O.M. Lukyanova National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Keywords: early climax, forecasting, mathematical model, risk groups, prevention.

Abstract

A great asset of our time is a significant increase in life expectancy. This is especially true for women’s health issues, as women live longer than men and are more stubbornly opposed to age-related changes and aging, trying to preserve not only beauty and youth, but also reproductive function. The use of algorithms and mathematical models for predicting the occurrence of pathology in medical practice makes it possible to predict in advance not only the fact of the occurrence of this complication, but also to determine the likelihood of its occurrence, which is very important for the subsequent identification of risk groups in order to develop individualized preventive and treatment measures. Namely, the timely appointment of preventive measures and the development of individual treatment programs will improve the quality of life of every woman. The purpose of the work is to develop an algorithm and a mathematical model for predicting the risk of developing early climax (EC) against the background of a woman’s biological aging by studying various factors with the subsequent development of individualized preventive and treatment measures. In order to study the possibilities of predicting the occurrence of RK against the background of a woman’s biological aging, a retrospective analysis of the frequency of the studied factors in patients with EC was carried out in comparison with women with preserved menstrual function and timely onset of menopause. The method of step-by-step discriminant analysis was used as a mathematical model, which made it possible to identify the probability of a difference between the comparison groups by the F value of Fisher statistics, to develop a forecast algorithm and conduct mathematical modeling. 12 out of 145 factors were identified by discriminant analysis, which most influenced the occurrence of this pathology, including the following: early menopause in relatives, smoking, history of artificial abortion (more than 3), extragenital pathology; the presence of stressful situations at home, at work; surgery on the uterus and appendages; inadequate physical and mental activity; adiposity; low serum estradiol concentrations; high levels of follicle-stimulating hormone in serum; anti-Mullerian serum hormone levels below normal and more than three in vitro fertilization attempts. It is the method of multivariate mathematical analysis, considering all the most informative factors and variants of their expression, made it possible to create this prognostic model. The algorithm and mathematical model developed by the authors to predict the occurrence of this pathology, considering certain factors, have a high sensitivity and informativeness, which makes it possible to identify the risk groups of patients of reproductive age in the occurrence of this pathology in order to prevent and prescribe individual treatment in a timely manner.

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Published
2019-05-05
How to Cite
Efimenko, O., Retunska, I., & Marturosova, T. (2019). Forecasting early climax on taking into account of reproductive and biological age indicators. Biomedical and Biosocial Anthropology, (35), 23-28. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31393/bba35-2019-04